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Cautious consumers counting pennies

People's reluctance to spend while the economy struggles, house values fall and job security worsens has prompted an increasing number of price cuts on the high street.

Perhaps the most surprising is Marks & Spencer's biggest one-day sale for four years which is on all day today.

The discount day is said to be an attempt to fire up sales so dismal that Seymour Pierce stockbrokers downgraded its 2008/09 profits forecast for the firm from £650 million to £630 million.

Analyst Freddie George, from Seymour Pierce, described the discount day as a "clear sign that sales are well behind budget".

"That said, it is going to be very tough for everybody. We are going to see trade falls and margins cut," he added.

"I think everybody knows things are really bad.

"I think we are going to have quite a lot of discounting."

The high street is already facing stiff competition from online retailers but is this year fighting for a share of a decreasing pot of festive spending money.

Some stores - like Debenhams - are holding planned discount days on similar dates to last year.

Others, M&S included, are using price cuts to try to lure in shoppers after poor sales figures.

Retail analyst Fraser Ramzan, of Nomura, said the rarity of the M&S sale day might persuade people to do some of their Christmas shopping earlier than they had planned.

"The customer is not conditioned to expect M&S to do these things very often. If they were doing this kind of thing regularly there is a danger the customer would become accustomed to waiting for that sale," he said.

"Because M&S generally does 'hold its nerve' until Boxing Day, the same as some others like Next, people won't expect them to do this again before Christmas."

He said the slight danger was that people would only buy items with 20% off which they would have bought anyway at full price.

That would bite into the chain's profits and potentially still leave it with all the items which would have gone in the sale, he added.

He said it was a trade-off and M&S was no doubt hoping the discount day would encourage people to buy extra items.

Even those who are not cutting prices might benefit from the current trend for promotions, Mr Ramzan said.

"There is a line of thought that this actually benefits retailers who don't go on sale," he said.

"While Debenhams and M&S are on promotion, there is greater footfall."

Analysts said clothing and homeware chain Next has always held off until after Christmas to start its sale and it is expected to "hold its nerve" again this year.

Despite the current anxiety, Mr Ramzan said shelves were unlikely to be groaning with unsold goods after Christmas as most retailers - anticipating fewer sales - had ordered less.

"The retail sector is an area where people have been planning for tough times for some time, certainly since the second half of last year there has been an anticipation that things were slowing and would get worse," he said.

He added that it was not all bad news for retailers, who were reporting that while the numbers of sales were falling, more expensive items were often selling well.

"It's the top end of ranges that are selling best, not the basics," he said.

"People are being more selective."